Welcome to the NFL Survivor pool picks and tips for 2023. NFL Survivor pools are gaining in popularity and we are still figuring out the perfect strategy on how to navigate them. If you need proof of this, last year’s sheer carnage that saw many Survivor groups expire before Christmas is enough to remind everyone how hard it is to win a Survivor group, even if you do your research.
At their core, survivor pools look simple. Simply pick a team to win each week! There are 16 possible correct answers in weeks without byes and there are at least 12 games to choose from even in massive bye weeks where six teams are byes.
the athlete Betting and fantasy authors Adam Gritz and Renee Miller will guide everyone through the 2023 NFL season, make their picks, analyze the teams, and delve into winning strategy.
In the past two weeks, Adam has looked at some basic strategies and how NFL survivor groups work, and Renee has delved into using her background as a neuroscience professor to look at how biases affect our choices and our chances of winning a survivor group. .
Next week, we’ll walk you through some early season strategies for weeks 2-4 assuming we can all survive week one. It’s good for us to take a look at the teams, how the coaches will use the players, and how the rookie quarterbacks will use to do in Week 1.
First week strategy
Renee Miller: As I noted in my preview article earlier in the week, I’m playing it safe the first week. The main thing is progress, no matter the size of your group. Trust me, there are going to be some matches that are trying to get the one percent team up, especially in the big leagues. let them! You have all season to show how smart you are…but only if you don’t get eliminated this week.
Adam Gritz: I’m with you Renee Let’s wrap up the first week and then start looking at some of the more advanced strategies and teams we might want to use. There are a handful of good picks, including the Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals. This could be Washington’s favorite team all season and you can save some of the better teams by using the leaders this week. However, they are the second most popular band used.
First week of chalk picks
Choose predictions from OfficeFootballPool. Lines from BetMGM. Looking for a free Survivor pool? Join the BetMGM League.
| a team | Discount | He chooses % | spread |
|---|---|---|---|
|
vs. Texas |
35.3% |
-10 |
|
|
against the Cardinals |
24.8% |
-7 |
|
|
versus pirates |
13.4% |
-6 |
|
|
in ponies |
5.8% |
-5 |
|
|
against black |
4.9% |
-4.5 |
Adam Gritz: If the goal in week one was to survive and move on to the next, then there is probably no better option this week than the Baltimore Ravens. They are double-digit favorites over a Houston Texans team that is not only one of the worst rosters in football, but also starting rookie quarterback making his NFL debut (CJ Stroud). Not only do the Ravens have the highest probability of winning this week (80 percent), but they are also the most popular pick (about 33 percent). Should – focus on “should” – be good enough to carry you through to the next week.
The only problem with picking the Ravens is that they still have very good future value and you might want to keep them for a week when your league weakens a bit. The Week 3 game against Indianapolis (also against a crappy rookie quarterback and no Jonathan Taylor) is interesting for them, as is the Week 8 game against Arizona when your league might be really weak.
If you want to save the Ravens for a later date, Washington is probably the next safer pick here given that they’re playing the aforementioned Arizona team who, quite frankly, might not win many games at all this season. Leaders also don’t have much future value as they are only favored in a few games the rest of the way. It’s never been a better time to pick leaders The Howell Medal.
Renee Miller: My favorite for a safe start to the season is Minnesota (70.1 percent win probability, chosen by less than 15 percent of users). The Vikings are the home favorites by six points over the Buccaneers and are widely expected to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league.
Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the few Under-20 implied team totals for Week 1 (19.25 points). Tampa has two aging star receivers mixed with untested youth at TE and RB. I don’t see Baker Mayfield as the glue holding this crime together. The third reason to love the Vikings in week one is their upcoming schedule. When it comes to looking ahead, you should mostly care about the next six games or so, and Minnesota has some tough matchups there (Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, 49ers, maybe even the Bears and Packers can give them a run on the road). You might consider saving the Vikings for Week 4 in Carolina, but I have another option circled for that possibility (burn: it’s San Francisco vs. Arizona).
Week One: Contrasting Shots
Miller: If you had to go against the grain in the first week, my ambivalent choice would be Seattle. The Seahawks are the 5.5-point home favorite over the LA Rams and come with a 68.3 percent win probability with the same team implied total as Minnesota: 25.75 points. As of this writing, only 3.1 percent of players pick them up in survivor groups. Cooper Kupp just doesn’t seem right for this game and is by far the shining light in the Rams offense. On the other side of the field, the Seahawks have one of the deepest sources of talent in both a WR and an RB and will bring back an offense that finished 10th in the scoring list last season.
gritz: a truly The contrasting choice might be the Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolinas. The Falcons have a winning probability of 63 percent (the same level as Seattle’s 67 percent probability against the Rams), a pick rate of just 1.6 percent, and have marginal future value. Do you trust Desmond Ryder at the start of the season? Well, if you don’t do it now, you probably won’t trust it against a better team later. Atlanta takes on a rookie (Bryce Young), at home, in his first start with few weapons around him.
(translatable tags) NFL