Map: Track Tropical Storm Lee’s path
Lee was spotted by a tropical storm in the North Atlantic Ocean Wednesday morning ET, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical storm had winds of 70 miles per hour. Lee is expected to grow into a major typhoon by the end of the week. Follow our coverage here.
Tropical storm winds, which have sustained winds of at least 39 mph, usually arrive when weather conditions begin to deteriorate, and experts say the estimated time of arrival is a good deadline for completing storm preparations and evacuating if called upon.
Arrival times and probability of adverse winds
Lee is the twelfth storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean in 2023.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, which is a “near-normal” amount. On August 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upwards, to 14 to 21 storms.
There were 14 named storms last year, after two so busy seasons of hurricanes in the Atlantic that forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to backup lists. (30 named storms formed in 2020.)
This year is marked by an El Niño pattern that arrived in June. An intermittent weather phenomenon can have widespread effects on weather around the world, and it usually hinders the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.
In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño increases the amount of wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface into the atmosphere. Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and the instability caused by increased wind shear makes these conditions less likely. (The El Niño phenomenon has the opposite effect in the Pacific, reducing the amount of wind shear.)
Meanwhile, rising sea surface temperatures this year pose a number of threats, including the potential to make storms stronger.
Sources and notes
tracking map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: The map shows odds of at least five percent. The forecast includes the five days beginning three hours before the last reported time and location of the storm.
schedule of arrivals Sources: New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data (arrival times); US Census Bureau and Natural Lands (geographic locations); Google (timezones) | Notes: The table shows the expected times for tropical storm-force winds to reach selected cities if there is a chance that these winds will reach those locations. “As soon as possible” times are times when, in the event of a tropical storm wind arriving, there is at least a 10 percent chance of it arriving at the time shown. The “likely” times are times when, if a tropical storm wind arrives, there is an equal chance of that wind arriving before and after the time shown.
