Fantasy Football Rankings Week 13: Sleepers, Prospects, Starts, Sits | Zack Moss, Rashi Rice and others

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 13: Sleepers, Prospects, Starts, Sits |  Zack Moss, Rashi Rice and others

With Jonathan Taylor out, Zach Moss is back, and we have some managers who need their Week 13 fantasy football rankings more than anyone thinks. With six teams on their bye, game previews and sleepers are even more important to making sure you win and get into the fantasy playoffs.

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Week 13, Fantasy Football Playoffs

** BYES: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG **

Note: All Of the statistics are Since the seventh week – Unless mentioned. This is because it’s good to look at recent performance compared to defenses over the course of the year, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things.

Abbreviations

  • RBTouch% — RB Touch Percentage — The percentage of total RB touches made by a player
  • TmTGT% — Team Goal Percentage — The percentage of the team’s total goals that go to this player
  • TGT% — The percentage of time a player is targeted when playing tracks
  • G2G and GL — Goal to Go (inside the 10-yard line) and Goal Line (inside the 5-yard line)
  • TmAirYD% — Team’s Air Yard Percentage — The percentage of total air yards allocated to this player
  • CPOE — Completion vs. Expectation — allows the completion percentage to be adjusted depending on the difficulty of the pass (depth, coverage, etc.)
  • YPRR — yards per route run — is a fairly valuable indicator
  • APA — Adjust the points allowed (link to tables above)

Seahawks at Cowboys, TNF

  • If Kenneth Walker returns, he’s a risky RB2, Zach Charbonnet is a RB3 – James Conner is the only runner to return for a top 69 yards or 85 total yards against the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys have the highest EPA/Play, EPA per Dropback, points margin (+108) and TD/Drive% (43.1), as well as the second-highest YD/Play (6.6 – 49ers at 6.9).
  • DK Metcalf averages 21.0 more YPR (37.3 to 16.3) when up by 7+ versus down by 7 or more – Tyler Lockett is more neutral in game script at 3.0.

Colts at Titans, 1 p.m

  • Zack Moss is a top 15 option until Jonathan Taylor returns. In the three games Moss was active and before Taylor returned — plus two more after Taylor was active — Moss finished 10th, 4th, 21st, 2nd, 9th, respectively — and subsequently finished 30th, 14th, 49th, 70th, 31.
  • In games with a rushing TD, Derrick Henry is averaging 22.0 fps compared to 7.4 fps in games without a rushing TD. The Colts have given up 11 RB rushing TDs (fifth most).
  • Josh Downs has been targeted on 28.1% of his routes, which ranks 10th highest (minimum 20 targets) – and Michael Pittman is sixth at 30.2%.

Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m

  • Demario Douglas has 23.5 TmTGT% (21st) and 27.0 TGT% (14th) – at least. 20 goals.
  • If Douglas plays, it’s imperative that he start off with a lean week and a great game (which helped Jordan Love get back on track in Week 11). If not, DeVante Parker is a risk/reward WR4.
  • If Joshua Palmer returns, he will play as a WR3 – unless he is limited all week. Palmer is the second-best option (when healthy), which would push Jalen Guyton into the Hail Mary pool. If there’s no Palmer, Guyton is a WR4 with the upside for more.
  • If you’re in desperate need of a tight end, Hunter Henry is a good gamble as the Chargers have the highest TE APA (14.4).

Lions at Saints, 1 p.m

  • If Chris Olave plays, you should start him. If he is out and Rashid Shahid plays (unlikely), Shahid will be a solid WR3. If both are out, AT Perry is a risk/reward WR3/4.
  • David Montgomery is averaging 4.3 yards after contact, behind Keaton Mitchell (7.5) and Jaylen Warren (5.0) — Jahmyr Gibbs is 21st at 3.0. Montgomery and Gibbs are tied for first in yards before contact at 2.5.
  • Even with the bye, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets (36), receptions (31) and receiving yards (269) — Rashad White is sixth (29), second (27) and second (266).

Falcons on Planes, 1 p.m

  • Not surprisingly, the Jets have the lowest WR APA (19.8 – CLE is second at 23.6).
  • Some of Breece Hall’s biggest runs have come while down 7+, as he averages 3.0 more YPC when down 7 or more vs. 7+ (also, Jets don’t go up 7+ frequently).
  • As we saw last week, the Falcons are happy when they are close or ahead, and Bijan Robinson averages 1.7 more YPC points when he is at 7+ (8th largest gap).
  • Garrett Wilson has the fourth highest YPR gap when he’s up 7+ versus down 7 or more at 21.8.

Cardinals at Steelers, 1 p.m

  • If Michael Wilson finally returns, it will be a tough matchup, but he is worth the gamble as a WR4. If he is out during the bye, Greg Dortch takes his place with a bit more risk.
  • It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but many quarterbacks average more yards per dropback when down by 7 or more. However, Kyler Murray ranks fourth with 5.1 more YPD, while Kenny Pickett is the opposite, averaging 3.7 more YPD on a 7+ up than a 7+ down (3rd largest gap behind Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder).
  • Jaylen Warren has the most rushes of 10+ yards (14) and the second highest percentage of those runs (23.7% – Keaton Mitchell first at 24.1%). Najee Harris has nine but is only hitting 11.3% of his runs (22).

Dolphins at Leaders, 1 p.m

  • The Dolphins have the eighth-highest halftime point differential (+30) while the Leaders are fifth (-62). This should lead to a happy passing game and Antonio Gibson’s deceptive value.
  • The leaders are the highest APA rating for QBs (26.1 – LAC is second at 23.8) and WRs (45.0 – LAC is second at 37.7).
  • If De’Von Acane returns, Raheem Mostert will still be in the RB1 conversation against the Leaders, with Acane in a high-ceiling RB2 role. If Acane is out, Mostert would move into the top five and Jeff Wilson is RB3.

Broncos at Texas, 1 p.m

  • Noah Brown struggles to return, but if he does, you can play him as a high-risk/reward WR3/4. Brown led several broad categories during Weeks 8-10.
  • The Texans allow the lowest YPC to opposing RBs (CAR, TB, CIN, ARI, JAX) at 3.13 – the Dolphins are second at 3.24. Javonte Williams is averaging 3.45 YPC over his past four games (KC, BUF, MIN, CLE).
  • The Broncos have the sixth-strongest pass defense and second-lowest WR FPPG, but allow the highest YPC to RBs (5.14), the most missed tackles per attempt (0.26) and the highest RB APA (26.9).

Panthers at Buccaneers, 4 p.m

  • The Panthers have the lowest yards before contact at 0.46 (TEN is second lowest at 0.50 – DET is best at 2.16), and they also have the sixth highest pressure percentage allowed at 40.1.
  • The Buccaneers allowed two running backs to run for the top 78 yards (Dandre Swift and Jonathan Taylor). Taylor is the only one to have a rushing touchdown against them (two).
  • On the other hand, the Bucs have the highest passer YPG (304.5), third-highest YPA (8.62), fifth-highest QB FPPG (22.0), third-highest WR FPPG (26.6), and highest YPRR (1.86).

Browns at Rams, 4 p.m

  • If Amari Cooper plays, he’s still a risky WR3 whether it’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker. Elijah Moore would trade his WR3 for slightly less value and is a safer option if Cooper is out, and Cedric Tillman would be a Hail Mary option.
  • The Browns have the most plays/G (72.7 — WAS is second at 71.0), but rank ninth in TD/Drive% (15.8).
  • They were also solid against the pass with the lowest QB APA (12.4), but were more vulnerable to the run, ranking 14th in FPPG (IND, SEA, ARI, BAL, PIT, DEN).
  • Kyren Williams’ Game Ends Record: RB7, 4, 26, 3, 30, 2, 1. He also averages 3.8 more yards per carry when the Rams are up 7+ than when they are down 7 or more (second most after Justice Hill 4.3).

49ers at Eagles, 4 p.m

  • The 49ers are allowing a league-high 43.6%, yet Brock Purdy has only been sacked once, and the Eagles are sixth lowest in Sack% per Dropback (4.8 – leads Chiefs at 12.0).
  • If Dallas Goedert returns, he will draw comparisons to DeVonta Smith and his recent success — Smith has 19.1 TmTGT%, 15.5 TGT%, 27.3 TmAirYD% when Goedert is on the court compared to 35.5%, 26.7% and 53.4% ​​without him — but… it might be Goedert is a risky option considering the 49ers have the second-lowest TE APA (7.4).
  • Smith also sees a 24.4 TGT% when trailing by 7 or more versus just 13.7% when the Eagles are up by more than 7 points.

Chiefs at Packers, SNF

  • If Aaron Jones doesn’t return, AJ Dillon is a size-based RB2 with Jayden Reed getting a boost on rushing attempts. If Jones returns, he is a risk/reward RB2 and Dillon is a RB3.
  • Reed does more when tracking by landing with a YPR of 10.6 higher on downs of 7 or more vs. 7+ (12th largest when tracking).
  • Rashi Rice has a 15.9 TmTGT% but only a 9.7 TmAirYD%, while Justin Watson has 12.5% ​​(2nd for Chiefs WRs) and 26.1% (1st).

Bengals at Jaguars, MNF

  • The Bengals are allowing 13.7 YPR, the highest in the league, while the Lions are second at 13.0, while the Panthers (8.35) and Bears (8.81) are the toughest.
  • Joe Mixon had a season-low 10 touches, eight rushes, 2.0 YPC and 7.0 FPs with Jake Browning last week.
  • The Jaguars allow the second fewest RB FPPG and only two RBs have run for a touchdown against them (Dameon Pierce Week 3, Zack Moss Week 6).

Week 13 Fantasy Football Dreams

here they are The sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo Worth the risk in most tournaments, and dangerous If you need a Hail Mary.) They won’t replicate my ratings 100%. It’s about chasing the upside and often carries more risk – simply put, it’s bullish trades that you might consider when choosing a solid floor.

Woo woo worth it

  • QB: Sam Howell, WSH
  • RB: Jaylen Warren, pit; Jerome Ford, CLE
  • WR: Adam Thielen, CAR; Josh Downs, IND
  • TE: Joan Johnson, no.

Let’s get dangerous

  • QB: Jared Goff, DET
  • RB: De’Von Acane, MIA (Jeff Wilson if Acane is out); Tyler Allger, ATL
  • WR: Jayden Reed, GB; George Pickens, Pete
  • TE: Tyler Conklin, New York

Have fun with the world rankings!

While eating some Thanksgiving leftovers, I thought, “I should have made time to slowly reheat the turkey with some sauce or something to keep it moist/better.” Oh, and these mashed potatoes will never be great again. So, here we are with this week’s classes…

The worst reheated foods

  1. Fish – especially in the microwave. There is a special place for people who are bad enough to do this in the workplace.
  2. Shrimp – second only to fish – is probably even worse, because the texture is never the same.
  3. French Fries – Don’t listen to the “air fryer” folks, because your fries will never be as good the second time around.
  4. Chinese – Always seems like a good idea until you get halfway through, and somehow the temperatures are different, the meat is chewy, and the rice pieces are hardening.
  5. Vegetables – They’re all bad, but my stepdaughter’s special vote for Brussels sprouts is the worst of all.
  6. Eggs – Are you risking salmonella for rubbery eggs when it takes a minute to make fresh, delicious eggs? Let’s go.
  7. Bacon – If you’re doing it in the microwave versus re-grilling it – who wants that overly chewy crap?
  8. Mashed Potatoes – They never reheat evenly, the texture is off, and there are now weird lumps with cold lumps that weren’t there before.
  9. Turkey – completely dry and hard like a shoe if you try to put it in the microwave.
  10. Steaks (and burgers) – Most red meats don’t work in the microwave, and why would they? Similar to bacon, you simply reheat on a grill or flat surface – although the burger is close to being trashed because the toppings and bun are ruined, soggy, etc.

Honorable mention: pancakes and French toast

BEST: Anything Italian – pizza is king, especially because you can eat it cold anyway.


Week 13 fantasy football predictions

🚨 attention 🚨 These can differ from my classifications and rankings Ranks are the order in which I will start players Out of added context, such as “I need the highest price, even if it’s risky.” Also, based on 4 TDs for QB, 6 RTS, 1/2 PPR

Forecast download link


Week 13 fantasy football rankings

🚨 attention 🚨

  • There is no perfect tool out there, unfortunately, still. I know a lot of people are watching this on your phone, but 1) Use the taxonomy tool on a PC/laptop/etc. If possible or 2) open it in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, so that the scrolling works properly.
  • ECR = “Expert” Consensus Rating (which is not updated by everyone constantly, so take it with a grain of salt).
  • It’s updated regularly, so check to see if your lineups are locked.

(Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

(Tags for translation) Fantasy Football

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