College football is officially back and we managed a winning week despite the late scoop (tape?) and the result of a bet loss. I’m not going to complain too much because it’s still early in the season and there are only positive vibes, but it was definitely hard to take. USF was covering the entire game!
Either way, as Ted Lasso (and probably many others) say, “be a goldfish.” When betting on sports, you have to have a short memory and move on to the next week. The season is on and we need that too.
Last week’s record: 2-2, +0.35 units
Season record: 3-2, +1.35 units, +27.3% return on investment
I took things seriously last week with the new clock rules and with the start of the new season, but now that we have some data from this season, we’re going to push it a bit more. Nine bets total this week, many of which, in my opinion, are due to overreaction to the first week’s results. Let’s dive in!
Week 2 of college football’s best bets
Please be sure to shop around in various sportsbooks to get the best possible number. Over the course of the season, you’ll add a half point here or five cents there.
The worst line to bet on is the final number I would bet on. For example, if I bet less than 49.5 and the “worst bet line” is 49 -110, I wouldn’t place that bet on 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win 1 unit on the favorites and risk 1 unit on the underdogs unless otherwise noted. All possibilities are from BetMGM and are locked in when the selection is made. Click here for live odds.
Illinois +3.5 (-115) in Kansas
What did you say about overreactions? Well, I was pretty close to fading out in Illinois last week and now I’m backing them into week two. Illinois’ close win over a powerhouse Toledo team is a little more encouraging when you see that they have outscored Toledo on almost every meaningful score. Statistic. A nearly doomed six-picker in Illinois, but this box result came out as I expected it too. So to say these teams are roughly equal is a bit of an exaggeration to me.
Worst betting streak: Illinois +3 (-115)
Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) at Wake Forest
From a bottom line perspective, Wake Forest seemed to have taken over against Elon last week, but that was backed up by a six-man pick and an Elon interception inside the 10-yard line. Vanderbilt will be a step up in class this week. Wake Forest will feel the loss of Sam Hartman to an SEC foe. Wake cannot place more than two numbers in this game. This game unlocked Wake Forest -14 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this keep rolling in as the week went on.
Worst betting line: Vanderbilt +10 (-115)
Utah -7.5 (-110) at Baylor
Maybe I’m overreacting here, but Baylor put in one of the most daring performances I’ve seen in a long time. Add to that the fact that Baylor has to turn to a backup quarterback this week and I feel better. Utah has injury problems in the middle, but this is the better team. The Utes have more talent, I think they are better coaches and I think Baylor could stay on the team for a long season. Give me Utes.
Worst betting line: Utah -8 (-110)
Nebraska +3 (-105) at Colorado (to win by 0.5 units)
This is because I think we’re overreacting to a Colorado win over TCU that could have gone bad. This is a double-digit move from the outlook lines a week ago, so I’m going to give it a try. Although I’m going to play down the stakes because Colorado, when it’s healthy, has a lot of guys who know how to play ball. If he loses, let’s hope Deion Sanders brings up this article in his post-match press conference. I will be honored.
Worst betting streak: Nebraska +3 (-105)
Purdue +3 (-110) at Virginia Tech
Again, I fell for Purdue last week and they lost as a favourite, but here I am backing them up in week two. I saw the Fresno State game as a coin flip and I don’t see this game being much different. In fact, I think Bordeaux should be preferred here. Virginia Tech put it up against a bad Old Dominion team last week, but Old Dominion had some success on offense only to make three mistakes. First wrong team favorite to bet for this year? I think so.
Worst line betting: Purdue +3 (-110) or Purdue ML +115 if +3 isn’t available
Texas A&M -4.5 (-110) at Miami (to win by 1.5 units)
Bobby Petrino, come down! Texas A&M’s offense looked effective in its win over New Mexico. Yes, New Mexico is probably one of the worst teams in college football, but Texas A&M was just as capable. That was not a guarantee in the past two years, regardless of the discount. I was criticized for having Texas A&M in the preseason top 15 because the Aggies had no offense. Well, pay attention.
Worst betting line: Texas A&M -7 (-110)
Marshall -3 (-110) in East Carolina
Marshall played a close game against Albany last week, but he totally dominated from a box points perspective. EPA/play, yards per game, pass rate, total yardage, any meaningful metric you want to look at shows Marshall should have won by a margin. I have no say in what ECU did against Michigan. They smoked and were supposed to smoke. I think we’re reacting a lot to the Marshall result for the first week here.
Worst betting line: Marshall -4 (-110)
SMU +16.5 (-110) at Oklahoma
If you want to shop around and wait for +17, don’t hesitate. I’ll get some +17’s to add to my position if I get the chance. Listen, SMU is really good for a non-Power 5 school (soon to be a Power 4 school). Oklahoma looked great in Week 1 against Arkansas State, but now the Sooners are playing a real opponent. That’s a big number for a team that has a defense that I’m not completely confident about. At the very least, the back door should be open in this game, but I think SMU can bring this closer than people want to admit.
Worst line betting: SMU +14 (-110)
Arizona State +3.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State
Sure, Arizona beat Southern Utah by just three points, but that was in large part due to the Sun Devils’ poor special teams play. I’m not saying this isn’t a problem, but it’s more likely noise than any long-term problem. My numbers make this more of a choice, so getting a field goal in addition to the hook is a no-brainer for me. Hopefully we can end our Saturday night with a Pac-12 After Dark winner.
Worst betting line: Arizona State +3 (-110)
(Photo by Jeff Sims: David Birding/Getty Images)
(tags for translation) SMU Mustangs